Shopian, Sep 04 (KNO): The Zainapora seat in south Kashmir's Shopian district is poised for a triangular contest in the upcoming assembly elections among the National Conference (NC), the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and an independent candidate, Aijaz Ahmad Mir, a former MLA of PDP.
Political analysts with whom the news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO) spoke believe the division within the PDP could benefit NC's Showkat Ganie, who lost the seat to PDP's Mehbooba Mufti and Aijaz Ahmad Mir in 2008 and 2014, respectively.
The main candidates vying for the seat are Showkat Ganie of NC, Gh Mohiudin Wani of PDP and Aijaz Ahmad Mir, contesting as an independent candidate after leaving PDP.
In 2014, PDP's Aijaz Mir received 15,610 votes, while NC's Showkat Ganie received 13,805 votes. Now, as an independent candidate, securing a significant share of votes will be challenging for Mir.
Analysts believe that the split in PDP after awarding a ticket to Gh Mohi-ud-din Wani instead of former MLA Aijaz Mir could impact PDP's vote share and potentially benefit NC. Similarly, the division within NC could benefit PDP in Shopian.
Aijaz Ahmad Mir, currently a DDC member, has the support of DDC Chairperson Shopian Bilquees Bano and DDC Ab Rashid Lone Mantribugh, as well as a few independent members whose forms were rejected during scrutiny.
The open support of Jamaat-e-Islami for Mir is seen as a boost, as the now-banned organisation usually votes for PDP. This support could further weaken PDP's vote share and enhance Mir's chances, according to analysts.
Mir may also attract votes from NC, given his father Mohammed Jabbar Mir was an NC MLA in 1996 and had a strong track record.
On the other hand, Gh Mohi-ud-din Wani, a former PRO for Mehbooba Mufti when she was MLA of Watchi, has established good connections with the people of the constituency. His extensive campaigning and long-standing connections make him a strong contender.
Wani's support in 2014 helped Mir secure the seat shortly after joining PDP. However, the current division within PDP appears to give an edge to NC.
According to analysts, Showkat Ganie, who was given the NC ticket in 2008 and 2014 but lost both times, has remained connected with the constituency through his role as MLC. This continuous engagement could make him a strong contender for the seat, with the PDP's internal divisions working in his favour.
In 2008, Showkat received 4,474 votes, while Mehbooba Mufti received 12,810 votes. The seat has been represented by Ganie's brother-in-law Nazir Ahmad Wani and father-in-law Gh Qadir Wani three times from 1977 to 1987.
The seat was held by PDP in 2014 (Aijaz Mir) and Mehbooba Mufti in 2008. Other past representatives include Mohammad Khalil Naik of CPM (2002), Mohammad Jabbar Mir of NC (1996), Nazir Ahmad Wani of NC (1987) and Gh Qadir Wani of NC (1983 and 1977).
AC-36 Zainapora has 108,493 registered voters, including 54,134 males, 54,357 females, and 2 transgender voters. The ECI has set up 129 polling stations in this constituency to ensure comprehensive and inclusive electoral participation.
Assembly Constituency (AC) 37 - Shopian has a balanced voter distribution with a total of 100,546 registered voters, including 50,748 male voters, 49,793 female voters, and 5 transgender voters—(KNO)